Despite record-breaking DRAM prices and surging demand, memory giants Samsung and SK hynix are not rushing to expand production. Instead, they are taking a cautious, long-term approach shaped by market cycles and a key milestone: 2028.
The DRAM market is currently experiencing a significant supply shortage, reflected in triple-digit increases in contract prices. Demand, especially from AI infrastructure, continues to accelerate as data centers require massive volumes of DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
However, according to industry reports, Samsung expects the current supply-demand imbalance to ease around 2028. This projection is now guiding how memory manufacturers plan their capacity expansion, with a strong focus on avoiding overinvestment.
The hesitation stems from past experience. Following the COVID-19 boom, the industry faced a sharp downturn as PC demand weakened and enterprise spending slowed. This led to oversupply, putting pressure on pricing and profitability for several quarters. That period remains a key lesson for memory vendors today.
As a result, both Samsung and SK hynix are prioritizing controlled and strategic expansion rather than aggressive scaling, even in the face of strong demand. While customers are requesting more DRAM and HBM capacity, suppliers remain cautious, knowing that any overcommitment could lead to another cycle of oversupply once demand stabilizes.
This creates a structural imbalance in the market: demand continues to grow, but supply expansion remains measured. In the short term, this dynamic is likely to sustain the current shortage.
More importantly, some analysts suggest that today’s elevated DRAM pricing could become the “new normal.” This implies that businesses and consumers may need to adapt to higher memory costs for an extended period, at least until the market approaches 2028 and suppliers reassess their strategies based on actual demand trends.
For the broader industry, this signals a shift from reactive scaling to more disciplined capacity planning, especially in the era of AI-driven demand.
