The latest memory pricing survey from TrendForce indicates that DRAM suppliers are reallocating capacity toward HBM and server applications in Q2 2026, while implementing “catch-up pricing” strategies to narrow price gaps across product segments. Conventional DRAM contract prices are projected to rise 58–63% QoQ, despite downside risks in end-market demand.
Meanwhile, the NAND Flash market continues to be driven by demand from AI and data centers, with price increases spreading across the entire product portfolio. Overall, NAND Flash contract prices are expected to increase by 70–75% QoQ in Q2 2026.
Across DRAM segments, prices are expected to remain elevated due to tight supply. Although PC system demand has been revised downward, suppliers have also reduced shipments to OEMs and module manufacturers. As a result, OEMs with lower allocation fulfillment rates are forced to procure at higher prices from suppliers or module vendors, further supporting price increases.
North American cloud service providers are accelerating AI inference deployments, driving strong demand for both AI servers and general-purpose servers. High-capacity RDIMMs have become the primary procurement target. On the supply side, manufacturers continue to prioritize server DRAM due to its higher profitability, while negotiating long-term agreements with key customers to support future capacity expansion. However, near-term supply remains highly constrained.
In the smartphone segment, brands are facing increasing pressure from rising memory costs and may adjust production plans starting in Q2 2026. However, demand for mobile DRAM is not expected to decline significantly in the first half of the year. As Q2 pricing is finalized with key customers and a new pricing baseline is established, mobile DRAM prices are expected to continue increasing from the previous quarter.
For graphics DRAM, rising memory costs are weighing on demand for laptops and gaming devices, while limited capacity allocation to GDDR continues to constrain supply. As a result, prices are expected to rise further in Q2 2026.
In the consumer DRAM segment, customers are primarily focused on low-cost, high-volume products with thin margins. Ongoing price increases since early 2025 have pushed memory costs above selling prices for some products, leading to a slowdown in procurement demand. However, the gradual withdrawal of major suppliers from the consumer DRAM segment remains the key driver of supply-demand imbalance, and shortages have yet to ease.
AI-driven capacity pressure continues to push NAND Flash prices higher
In Q2 2026, NAND Flash growth remains limited despite suppliers increasing bit output through process improvements and greater adoption of QLC. Demand from AI servers remains strong, while PC and smartphone vendors are reducing product capacities to curb NAND demand.
Buyers increasingly expect client SSD prices to rise further, even as PC demand has yet to recover. Concerns that server demand may absorb most available capacity are prompting customers to restock inventory. Meanwhile, suppliers are focused on maximizing profitability by maintaining pricing through Q2, primarily by continuing to restrict supply to client SSDs.
Demand for high-performance SSDs has surged as generative AI enters large-scale deployment, with enterprise SSD orders showing no signs of slowing. A clear shortage is expected in 2026, while meaningful capacity expansion is unlikely before late 2027 or 2028. Cloud service providers are willing to accept higher prices and sign long-term agreements to secure stable supply, further strengthening suppliers’ pricing power.
For eMMC/UFS, despite a weak smartphone market, demand for high-speed data transmission driven by AI features in flagship devices remains resilient, while automotive and industrial demand has also seen modest recovery. On the supply side, eMMC/UFS shares process capacity with enterprise SSDs but delivers significantly lower margins, resulting in the tightest supply constraints across all segments. Prices are therefore expected to rise sharply in Q2 2026.
In the retail market, as well as for memory cards and USB drives, demand continues to decline under pricing pressure. Module manufacturers are facing both rising costs and weakening sales, leading to reduced demand for NAND Flash wafers. Considering inventory adjustments and profitability, wafers have become the lowest priority in supplier allocations. However, due to extremely limited availability in the market, wafer prices are still expected to trend upward in the second quarter.
